Global FOOD REQUIREMENT BY 2050
By Prof Ghulam Mohyudddin WANI
A population of 9 billion at the rate of 300-400 grams of dry cereals, 210 grams of milk/man egg on alternate days and 9-10 gram meat or equivalent caloric value of cheese, butter or other animal fats will need different commodities. Roughly for a mere sustenance of the world we may need 3 billion kgs of cereals,milk 2 billion litres, and other animal and vegetable fats and oils around 0.5 billion kgs per day.
The production levels of the world of cereals if esteemed at 5 ton/hectare on a rotation or combination of different crops in the world as per ecological potentialities will need around 0.25 billion hectares of land to produce it and this must be an irrigated land.
The planet earth has only 1-2 % cultivable land .Inspite of 1960 famine and food shortage presictions ,world witness a green revolution and a food security platue around 1980.The Indian food revolution was one of the significant forward step .It is again predicted that we face similar problems by 2050,let us assure the world the situation will reverse,Low water adjusted cereal crops,technology driven crops and improved seed can bring another revolution.Let us have confidence on our cretor the GOD,he has give human brain all the faculties to tide the waves of depression.The solution lied narrowing the gaps in yields between the peaks yields and the low yields.The encouragement of the locally adapted germplasm will chage the water deficient syndrome and green the grey areas of the deserts,The use of saline water for the cultivation of the sea belts and deserts may help to produce more than can be consumed.The right mind of peace and traqulity is what is needed and not the present atmosphere of despair and uncertainty,World needs peace today more than any time in the past.The so called cultural war is making deserts and converting fertile lands into denuded dune due to excessive use of drones,land mines,gunfire,burnt properties and pollution from ivrory coast to Asian pennensula,
Its country wise situation of food shall be discussed later. The available land may have to be kept in a perfect state of fertility.
To feed 9 billion populations in 2050 is not difficult if following points are kept in mind.
1.The soil fertility maps of the entire land under cereals need to be prepared and fortification with organic or limited therapeutic doses of the chemical fertilizers be used to achieve a production of 5-6 tons /hec.The use of organic manures as shown in Table 1 can substitute inorganic chemical fertilizers if not replace them.
2. The seed replacement rate of 50-100 % needs to be targeted as per the genetic improvement potential and breeding values estimations so as to achieve a growth rate of higher productivity. The cereal growth rates should be targeted at double the population growth rate .This is necessary as all the cereals have to be used in a finished product base by the individuals and given the harvesting, post harvesting and storage losses the estimates should be targeted at higher rate. Even this may compensate any climatic upheavals like drought, floods or winds.
3. A new convergence of technologies at global level needs to be evolved, where the research level technologies are disseminated around the world on daily basis through newspapers and TV channels. The present 5-6 year post research agricultural magazine and journals should be replaced with daily technological application results of different skills and methods researched in the globe. Thus a global communication and information network specific to agriculture and farming has to be evolve.
4. A new farm CENTRIC NEWS CUM DEMONSTRATION channels have to be opened. All the agricultural institutes and universities have to deliver the information’s round the clock like the news channels reporting the routine war and game news. This will need a planning for training human resources on a large scale than the routine agricultural or rural management institutes and schemes. This will need funds too but it can be easily recovered through agric industrial advertisement and product sale recoveries.
NATURAL WASTE AS FERTILIZER
Table 1 Organic fertilizer for global safe food
Waste material constituents in %
PHOSRORUS NITROGEN MICRONUTRIENTS
- Mud waste 1-4 0.8 65
Farm Yard Manure 1-3 1-2 40
Recoiled cakes 1-4 1-2 45
Municipality waste 1-3 1-2 45
- Green manure 1-5 0.5 so
Materials available in all locations for example in Kashmir, the locally available rice crop stub, green garden waste, fallen tree leaves, apple dropping, bird droppings, orchard waste,dalweeds,forest waste, apple pomase,hulls and sewage waste could be used as chemical fertilizer substitutes.
Pesticide use in India for agricultural purposes as per estimates calculated a decade earlier were amounting to 3500 cores, a substantial amount of harmful non degradable chemicals used for house hold against termites, rats and insects were of a value of 1000 crores.Thus the chemical use has to be reduced and subsequently abandoned like plastics and DDT over a period of a decade.
What is needed a new industrial set up to use the above mentioned materials for the manufacturing of the organic fertilizers. It will help in two ways, firstly reduction in chemical use and harmful emissions, secondly cleaning of the environment by use of dirt and unhygienic materials polluting the water and soil on one hand, and affecting the health oh soil,water,plant,animal. human kind on the other.
The new emerging disease and those already known or unknown are the result of the accumulation of these materials in the drains and making human dwellings as slums especially in and around thickly populated metropolis of Mumbai, Delhi and other such cities round the corners of the world.
THOUGHT FOR ACTION
We need food for the sustenance of 9 billion humans and approximately equal number of domesticated livestock .The land resources is limited and already in use more than the norms fixed and required for the environment protection and climate change mitigation. The less forest cover, the higher population pressure in the world demands more planting of the trees for the CO2 usage.Here too the local plant species need to be tried like khejri in Rajisthan,India deserts as documented in detail in some of the free web papers by this author.
VERTICAL MULTISTOREY TEVHNOLOGY FARMING
No horizontal expansion of land for agiculture is possible.Thus the embargo of feeding increasing populace becomes more challenging. Daring and innovative steps are needed to meet the challanges.Under such a scenario abandoning the chemical fertilizers in toto seems a far reaching echo than cry. We needs a balance between chemical use as per need only and not the blanket use .New ways of removing the biologically harmful ingredients from chemical fertilizers may be an option and an open challenge to our chemical scientist for innovations or alternate formulations that make farm chemical use harmless.
We cannot forget the fact that DDT a harmful and now banned chemical saved 2-8 million Malaysian alone from deaths due to Malaria in 1948-63.Its use lowered the death toll of 2-8 millions from 1948 to only 17 in 1963.No doubt it is a poisonous substance but its use then was unavoidable to save sick humans. Even Hitler’s holocaust and wars did not kill more humans than the malaria before the DDT use. Thus to that extent it has served its purpose. What is needed to investigate and change its harmful formulation for future good or plan for an alternative which is safe?
BIO FUEL MENCE.
Earlier we have hinted at bio fuel mince for some and boon for few. May be I put it boon for the haves and curse for the have-nots.
What is bio fuel? It is fuel obtained from sources other than the fossil fuel or petrochemicals. The sugar prices are raising and a new mince of converting sugar cane into ethinol.The distilleries in and around Bihar,India , where most of the people bellow poverty line live are increasing. A rough estimate of the last decade has shown that an investment of 15,000 crops has been invested in these distilleries for the production of ethanol.Surprisngly the use of sugarcane for sugar which is in traditional use has investment of 45,000 crores only.
If these trends of sugarcane conversions go unabated the whole population of the Bihar has to be declared sugar free (Medically a DM STATE) .Similar situation of opium cultivation in the world needs corrective and imaginative measures now or never.
FARM PRODUCE PRICES
One cannot ignore the farmers need to have more returns for their produce. As such in a world where mines and gunfire makes more money and ways and means are invented to keep the world on fire for commercializing the warfare products .
We cannot morally restrict the farmers to have more money out of these diversions. We needs a world order to curb the lust of money which corrupts the power balances and induces such ways and means which lead world to destruction than production of food and life saving essentials.
A world of 9 billion most of them will have little less than a dollar to spend per day shall force a new change if we do not adjust these concerns now.
BIOFUEL FROM WASTE MATERIALS
Bio fuel is essential and research is not futile but we need to use it for the good of the human and the living kind.I have used living kind than mankind because we have also to care for the preservation of wild and other living vreatures like ants,mites etc in our food chain too, If corn or sugarcane is replaced by woody shrubs, jatropha, forest weeds, fallen apple, apricot and variety of other perssable vegetables and waste products in each area of this earth. Thus the technology is appreciable but its use for conversion of the food into bio fuel may harm the food security of this global village.
Here may I repeat that each one of us in all countries use the deterent, explosive and mesiel technologies obviously to attack or defend. Many of us have made it a business. When in business you try to increase the clientale.For warfare use the clientale will increase and sale will be competitive when there are conflicts. Thus theoretically one can believe that the present euphoria of war mongers creating world conflicts is created for commercial . gains as many allege. If so then evil is near us and we search it every where. This all needs a discussion and strategy.
Land costs and its investment
If farmer has the land as his livelihood resource and he use it for having more returns, enen if it is a contraband we condemn it and prosecute those involved in cultivation and trade.Atleast on drug trafficking the whole world is unanimous. Why should we not be unanimous in curbing the manufacture and use of the warfare materials? If such a resolution comes even from Iran we must say yes to end nuclear hegemony in the world.
HEDGEMONISM HAS TO FOREGO
Why in a equal opportunity and moralistic world we allow SOME to proliferate and propagate the deadly nuclear arsenicals but we ask another global partner not to manufacture a deterrent to deter war .The WORLD NEEDS AN JUSTICE DISPENSATION WHERE all should be equal partners and if someone manipulates the threads of world peace and order all should humble him down.
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER FROM WEST TO EAST
In the field of agriculture many technologies invented and used in developing world are kept under lid.AS USUAL when these technologies become obsolete they are sold. May I call it warn out sale of technology. What the world needs is the sale of frontline technologies not the stale one.
COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION
The new era of communication and informatics would play wonders in making a scientific invention global. An idea of worth could be tested in one corner of the world and simultaneously revalidated in another part. Scientists and scientific inventions were scared as they benefit all. The current embargo of selling the knowledge has made it difficult for scientists in this world to replicate or verify the innovations as they are tagged under property rights Act. We as scientists too have become conservation and covert. We used to even communicate reference on verbal discussions and one used to object to refer his narration. Under the copy right Act we too have sold the Knowledge and become busssinessman.How sad we are charging the viewships of our publications too. A true scientist believes in assessment and verification of his work under varied geo-climatic situation to prove its universal truth. The embargo of copy rights some refrain you to reuse your own published tables and figures. This in my opinion has to change. We have chosen a path of vain and media (Indian phrases for knowledge and wisdom) we can’t sell like commodity. We have to maintain our morals to allow anyone to climb on and over our shoulders .The steps we construct are the baseline for others to climb ahead of us. We feel pride if some use the step we made and invented more useful facility or diagnostics for the welfare of the humanity’s such WE MUST RESOLVE TO MAKE ALL SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATION, reviews and visions free to be used by any one.
- About 1.02 billion people at present in this sworld do not have enough to eat .These numbers are more than the population of USA, CANADA an EU TOGETHER. Now may I repeat my request to avoid making warfare and strive for the production of food?
- .Some of my western friends may say why we should worry about the rest of the world. My previous papers have clearly shown that these developing countries were better off in food production before they were colonized…Even today the agricultural production is no where economic but yet weaponery and other mechanization of the merchandice makes a title in favour of the west not east.In true sense the progress or the money power is what comes from the sale of goods from the third world.A bussiness can not flourish with out buyers .The seller buyer is a partnership.During economic good days seller has made good profits he has to accommodate and compensate for the world upliftment.
- The number of undernourished people in the world increased by 75 million in 2007 and 40 million in 2008, largely due to higher food prices;
yet we talk of human rights in the world. If some individual is jailed in a developing or under developed nation we cry hoarse, we condemn it and all the western news papers cry and even shout. But when hundreds and millions die of hunger due to war like situation created by us or our former agents we do not motion it. If we are a global family then cost, creed, colour.religion and the geographic location should not matter, we are human, we have rights to live and feed ourselves. Yes we are ready to work .As a world society we created present climate threatening mistakes we have to make good the losses.Veitnam, jews, iraqies, Afganies, and many others suffered .We distorted agricultural infrastructure, universities and irrigation syatems.The common men and women on the street who suffer do not even understand what is happening and why they are terrorized .The horror and terror both are human right violation. The cultivation of option and intoxicating young generation is an injustice. All injustices and disturbance effect the cuture.The agriculture is the first causality.
- PEACE FOR AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY
- Therefore peace in the world is important to bring food to the needy. If those in need resort to hooligans or someone else kills a food aid convoy .They are enemies of the humanity not friends. Let us bring the misguided on either side back to peace.Iraq, afganistan, Vietnam and even place like Kashmir has more mines than the trees. Environment and climate are the causality of the warfare. Pollution and gunfire are the associates. Then where are we leading the world. The extracts from the FAO WHOES PROMISED BUGET IS NOT FORTHCOMING. Their share go to war prepration.We have and need a change. A universal code of conduct should be resolved by the UNO for budgeting agriculture adequately.
- HUNGER STATUS
- 907 million people in developing countries alone are hungry;
(Asia and the Pacific region is home to over half the world’s population and nearly two thirds of the world’s hungry people.
- More than 60 percent of chronically hungry people are women;
- 65 percent of the world’s hungry live in only seven countries: India, China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Ethiopia.
- Every six seconds a child dies because of hunger ;
- More than 70 percent of the world’s 146 million underweight children under age five years live in just 10 countries, with more than 50 per cent located in South Asia alone.
- 10.9 million Children under five die in developing countries each year. Malnutrition and hunger-related diseases cause 60 percent of the deaths, UNICEF, 2007.
- The cost of under nutrition to national economic development is estimated at US$20-30 billion per annum;
- One out of four children – roughly 146 million – in developing countries is underweight;
every year WFP feeds more than 20 million children in school feeding programmes in some 70 countries. In 2008, WFP fed a record 23 million children.
(Source: WFP School Feeding Unit)
- It is estimated that 684,000 child deaths worldwide could be prevented by increasing access to vitamin A and zinc
- Under nutrition contributes to 53 percent of the 9.7 million deaths of children under five each year in developing countries. This means that one child dies every six seconds from malnutrition and related causes.
- Lack of Vitamin A kills a million infants a year)
- Iron deficiency is the most prevalent form of malnutrition worldwide; affecting an estimated 2 billion people.6 Eradicating iron deficiency can improve national productivity levels by as much as 20 percent.
- Iron deficiency is impairing the mental development of 40-60 percent children in developing countries
- Vitamin A deficiency affects approximately 25 percent of the developing world’s pre-schoolers. It is associated with blindness, susceptibility to disease and higher mortality rates. It leads to the death of approximately 1-3 million children each year
- Iodine deficiency is the greatest single cause of mental retardation and brain damage. Worldwide, 1.9 billion people are at risk of iodine efficiency, which can easily be prevented by adding iodine to salt
- WFP-supported deforming reached 10 million children in 2007
FOOD & HIV/AIDS
- In the country’s most heavily affected, HIV has reduced life expectancy by more than 20 years, slowed economic growth, and deepened household poverty.
- In sub-Saharan Africa alone, the epidemic has orphaned nearly 12 million children aged less than 18 years.
- WFP and UNAIDS project that it will cost on average US $0.70 cents per day to nutritionally support an AIDS patient and his/her family.
- Assistance for orphans and vulnerable children is estimated at US$0.31 per day.
- NOTE TO BE CONTINUED – NEW SECTIONS ARE ON food aid, fish resources, livestock situation and dry land agriculture.
by Ghulam Mohyuddin Wani